Republican delegate battles
The Republican primaries continue to shock and appall. But some of you, especially outside the US, may not have noticed the politics going on behind the scenes.
Trump defeated Ted Cruz in Louisiana’s March 5 primary – he got 3.6% more votes – but Cruz may receive up to 10 more delegates from that state than Trump! The reason is that there are 5 ‘unbound’ delegates who can do what they want, who are expected to back Cruz. And there are 5 more won by Rubio, who has since dropped out, and these too may back Cruz.
Trump is threatening to sue, but it’s not clear he has any grounds:
http://www.npr.org/2016/03/29/472253183/trump-threatens-lawsuit-over-louisiana-delegates
In South Carolina, Trump won all the delegates. They’re pledged to vote for Trump at the first ballot in the Republican convention in Cleveland this June. If Trump gets 1237 votes he wins. But in a second vote, delegates are free to do what they want. And in South Carolina, Republican party insiders are trying very hard to get them to switch sides if this happens:
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/03/south-carolina-delegates-convention-221253
Also, Cruz is working very hard, and it seems successfully, to get delegates onto key committees in the Republican convention:
None of this may matter in the end. Trump only needs to win 53% of the remaining delegates to reach the magic number of 1237. But it’s interesting to watch the Republican party establishment squirm as this nightmarish event looms ever closer.
It could be quite close. A recent group of expert poll-watchers – see below – estimated that Trump will get 1208. Then we can expect a major drama.
No comments allowed, because people will get into political fights, and I don’t visit G+ for fights, or even politics. I just thought this behind-the-scenes stuff is not getting enough attention.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-most-important-states-on-trumps-path-to-1237-delegates/
